Laid-off sugar workers are not likely to embrace cooperatives (Part 1)

first_imgDear Editor,It seems that I touched a sensitive nerve unintentionally when I wrote a letter recently suggesting that Government’s initiative, spearheaded by Minister Keith Scott, to get laid off sugar workers to form cooperatives might not be the best option for them at this time.Someone from the minister’s team, Kenava Elious, responded — in a section of the media on July 11, 2018 — by accusing me of not doing research and not presenting “empirical evidence” to support my contention, among other misguided comments.Let me make it clear that I am not against cooperatives. Under the right circumstances, and with the right people, cooperatives can be successful. My point is simple: At this time in Guyana’s history, the right circumstances might not exist for successful cooperatives in the areas where most former sugar workers reside. And they might not be the right people to form successful cooperatives.Everybody knows that most cooperatives formed in Guyana failed. Everybody knows that many Guyanese connect cooperatives to a particular political party. Everybody also knows that former sugar workers live in communities that traditionally oppose the party that people link to cooperatives. Therefore, Government has a challenging task to get former sugar workers to embrace cooperatives and make them work.Also, I know for a fact — by communicating directly with many of these terminated sugar workers — that they have bitterness in their hearts; bitterness that is turning into hate. Their lives are in confusion, and they appear to be unforgiving. For me, this is a sad state of affairs. It pains my heart that in the Skeldon/Corriverton area, where I grew up, former sugar workers are thronging and begging for jobs in any capacity to make ends meet. The fact that I do not have contracts in the area to absorb these people disturbs me.So, Kenava Elious, I might not have empirical evidence from formal research, but I have lots of information acquired by observation. I meet these people, and they call me. Their wives and children Whatsapp me appealing for jobs. This is where the closure of the various sugar factories in the important zones in the sugar belt affects me personally, because I know — and you know — there was no preparation or education of these people about cooperatives and proper investment of their severance pay.My other great worry is that while looking for employment, their severance will be eaten out, and they will be left with nothing in their hands. Then drastic desperation and confusion will reign in their minds. It’s not dozens of people, but thousands who have been terminated without due diligence, preparation and organisation.I know the Government will be willing to assist in the cooperative ventures of groups. I have faith in the Government. But feeding the idea of cooperatives into the minds of confused and vexed people will be a tough sell. I am not speaking philosophy, I am speaking reality. I originate from the bosom of the sugar belt, and from among sugar workers.I believe Government initiatives must be practical to succeed.I know that when people are helped to develop their own businesses by the sweat of their own brows, and when what they get from the business is in proportion to what they put in, there is a much higher chance that they would succeed. In my opinion, businesses based on group mentalities are more likely to go awry. There are usually quarrels and fights for leadership, and members tend to grumble about the returns. Some cannot deal with financial responsibilities, and start to steal.The writer of the response to my letter alluded to me being a disciple of Minister Keith Scott. I have never been anyone’s disciple. I have a strong aversion to the word ‘disciple’ being used to categorise me. I understand mentors and persons who inspire. The minister has his way of thinking, and I am not necessarily completely with him in everything he says and does; and he is not always fully in step with me on every issue, such as the plan to push former sugar workers into cooperatives.Sincerely,Roshan Khan Srlast_img read more

Sri Krishna Janam-Ashthami: The appearance, celebration of the divinity personified

first_imgDear Editor,Sri Krishna Janam-Ashthami marks the ‘birth’ anniversary of Sri Krishna. Sri Krishna made His appearance at midnight on the eighth day (Ashtmi Tithi) in the dark half of the Hindu month Bhadrapada (August/September).It is no exaggeration at all to describe Sri Krishna as the unique personality, power and phenomenon which have exercised a profound influence on Hindus over thousands of years; an influence which has been most pervasive, positive and potent.The Sanskrit root-verb ‘kars’ means to pull or draw to oneself. When derived from this, ‘Krishna’ connotes one with that power, and from all accounts we have of Him, He was a verifiable divine magnet who irresistibly attracted to Himself all beings—men, women, and children; young and old; saints and sinners; scholars and the unlettered; royalty and common folk; heroes and the weak; and even animals like the cows.Both illumined sages and innocent devotees have adored Krishna as the ideal of all that is good and great, noble and beautiful. He has been considered the most perfect manifestation of divinity on earth. But there have been critics — both Westerners as well as Indians — who consider Him just a product of the infantile imagination of a people who possess neither lofty intellect nor high ethical standards.Notwithstanding the opinions of such critics, Krishna remains and prospers as continual power, a living  and wholesome ideal illuminating the minds, inspiring the hearts and moulding the lives of millions of good, worthy and intelligent people. What may appear to the dry intellect of the ill-informed critic as a bundle of contradictions and confusions—that very Krishna lives on in the consciousness and memory of the devoted as the sublime, indefinable, fusion of a many-faceted magnetic personality, a grand all-round ideal, and a delightfully uplifting legend.Refusing to be disturbed by the doubts, comments, or critical onslaughts of the skeptics, devotes have blissfully allowed themselves to be drawn to one or more of Krishna’s aspects. They find themselves elevated and enriched by the light, love, and joy radiating from their great Teacher, who is ‘Madhava’, the embodiment of sweetness and bliss. Sri Krishna is not merely the great lover, but equally the great hero, the great yogi, and the supreme Guru for aspiring and adoring humanity.Swami Vivekananda, in offering a tribute to Krishna, observes: “He was the most wonderful Sannyasin and the most wonderful householder in one; He had the most wonderful among the Rajas, power and was at the same time living in the midst of the most wonderful renunciation. Krishna, the preacher of the Geeta, was all His life the embodiment of the Geeta. He was the great illustration of non-attachment; a great landmark in the history of religion; the ideal of love for love’s sake; work for work’s sake; duty for duty’s sake; and it is for the first time fell from His lips of the greatest Incarnation, Krishna; and for the first time in the history of humanity, on the soil of India. He was the first heart large enough to see truth in all. In Krishna we find two ideas supreme; the first is the harmony of different ideas, and the second is non-attachment. He does not need anything; He does not want anything. He works for work’s sake. He is the most rounded man I know of, wonderfully developed equally in brain and heart and hand. Every moment of His is alive with activity. Five thousand years have passed and He has influenced millions and millions. My regard for Him is for His perfect sanity. No cobwebs in His brain, no superstition. He knows the use of everything”.Limited, finite persons and themes are easy to grasp and delineate. But Sri Krishna belongs to the dimension of the unlimited, beyond the understanding of the ordinary minds and measure of ordinary standards. In him all contradictions meet and become harmonised. He is the confluence of the highest expression of knowledge, love and action, heroism and tenderness, strength and grace, might and humility, splendor and renunciation. In short, He has emerged as the composite ideal of various human aspirations, the fulfillment of the quest for perfection—ethical, aesthetic, spiritual, altruistic—of various hearts and minds. It is because of this that He often becomes the central theme of not only religion and philosophy, but of art and sculpture, music and poetry, a phenomenon that defies all delimiting definition or classification.Krishna stands out and stays on eternally as the ideal and inspirer for the classes, and the saviour and refuge for the masses.“Krishna appeared like a thunderbolt to the warriors, superhuman to man, God of love incarnate to His devotees, their own to the cowherd Gopis, a child to His parents, as death itself to Kamsa, the vast cosmos to the gross, Ultimate reality to the Yogis, and Supreme Deity to His worshippers”. (Bhagavatam 10. 43, 17)Regards,Pt. Avishkar Nandalalllast_img read more

LIB Life Half-year Report: Who’s In?

first_imgAs the end of the year fast approaches, LIB Life, a component of the Daily Observer newspaper, is now releasing its first half of the year report on artists and their artistic achievements, bloggers and fashion promoters that are doing well in their respective fields.This first half of the report highlights six outstanding artists, a blogger and fashion promoter, retelling their record-breaking moments and other personal achievements.At the end of the list, we will acknowledge some people that may likely appear on the year-end list.8. Let’s get the ball rolling in eighth place with popular female blogger Berenice Mulubah for giving us juicy entertainment news on Liberian artists in the Diaspora.A few weeks ago the Diaspora Entertainment Awards nominated her for the Blogger of the Year award.In the early part of this year Berenice published her second book, a collection of poems called Purple Honey Lips. Lately, she has been added to the writing team of the new web-based series Daughters in America, produced by fellow Liberian, Love Weah.7. In the seventh spot is Quincy B. It would seem that this year holds great prospects for the 21 year-old singer and producer, evidenced by his recent unveiling as Lonestar Cell MTN’s new Brand Ambassador, in what is believed to be a mouthwatering endorsement deal.His deal makes him the second Liberian artist to be named Brand Ambassador of Lonestar Cell MTN, after Takun J.While the terms of the deal have not been revealed, however, it puts the artist on a higher path for success depending on the eventual outcome.6. Sitting comfortably in sixth place is Junda Morris-Kennedy, owner of Runway Liberia, an annual fashion event held in the U.S. and aimed at promoting and supporting Liberian fashion designers.The event featured some of the best models from around the world, and attracted classical fashion designers unveiling distinct western and African pieces.In the audience was former advisor to President Barrack Obama, Dr. Jamal Bryant, founder of the Empowerment Temple Church in the U.S.Well-known international Liberian fashion personalities Dolly Barnes, Abraham Pelham, US based and renowned makeup artist and hairstylist Lewina David, and upcoming fashion designer Tarloh Sayeh were honored for their contributions to the fashion industry.Also present was Giovanni Francisco from Italy, who represented the Logo Store.5. In fifth place is none other than celebrated rapper Jon Bricks, who a few months ago returned home from China with Chinese superstar Zhang Zhang and held a successful three-day concert.The Diva Dream Alive concert, which was held at different locations, pulled in thousands of people, with Bricks rumored to having grabbed approximately half a million Liberian dollars.Also, the rapper completed a successful five-nation European business tour, which allowed him to meet top music executives and promoters in Europe.While in Europe, Bricks shot a banging video, produced by Catia Productions in Milan for his new single Conqueror.Still on Bricks, the rapper runs a charity organization called Zama Plus Foundation International, aimed at providing support to the less fortunate in Liberia.4. Since his travel to Nigeria looking to etch his name on the African music landscape, things have been moving in the right direction for F dot A. For this, he comfortably sits in fourth place.A few weeks ago, the Afro pop artist was nominated for the Nigerian Entertainment Awards in the African Male Artist (non-Nigerian) category.Few months ago, F dot A returned home with a two-day successful concert with Naija cutie Chidinma for his hit single Desire.On June 22 of this year, F dot A’s single Desire went Number 1 on Soundcity West African Music and Video Chart after gaining over 300,000 views on YouTube. 3. At third place is visual artist Leslie Lumeh, who recently participated in the Lumieres d’Afriques (The Enlightened Africa) art exhibition where several artists used a variety of artistic presentations to highlight Africa’s latent creative talents.Lumeh, who has been profiled on CNN and other international media networks, ably represented Liberia at the historical event, which featured 54 African artists displaying works in a wide variety of creative media that brought the continent’s problems to the fore.Lumeh’s presentation, which was widely admired, was an acrylic on canvas piece titled The Light Within.2. In second is Scientific, and his inclusion is simple. The hip-hop artist became the first Liberian artist to have his song Rotate, featuring Quincy B, picked up by Vevo, one of the world’s biggest streaming services.Scientific also became the first rapper to win the hip-hop category of the LMA three years in a row.1. In first place is sensational singer Dash Coleman.This guy, who is not yet an A-list Liberian artist, has set one of the greatest records in the Liberian entertainment industry by winning four awards during a single awards night.He won the awards from the just ended Liberia Music Awards (LMA).Though K-Zee holds the record for being the first person to win three LMA awards during a single awards night, however, it was Dash who broke the record by win four awards at the just ended LMA.Artists like Eric Geso, Sweetz, Kobazzie, DenG and producers like Lorenzo Loveland and Infectious Michael are all doing well, and we hope they keep it up.Share this:Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)last_img read more

Glendora Peewee and Junior Peewee clean up at Nationals

first_imgThe Junior Peewee squad featured Alex Cullen, Alexandria Rubalcava, Amanda Leigh Sittrop, Bridget Taylor, Brittany Martinez, Cassandra Castillo, Christine Vilchis, Corina Rodriguez, Destiny Martinez, Destony Martinez, Heather Hogberg, Jessica Rodriguez, Jillian Meek-Spalonie, Kaylee Wallingford, Kelly Leathers, Kylee Pray, Madyson Gaines, Marissa McNamara, Rachel Gautreau, Tessa Kirk, Stephanie Johnson, Madaline Rubalcava and Kelsey Hart. Melissa Duchaineau coached the team along with her assistants Karen Pray, Lisa McNamara, Wendy Gaines, Hannah Gaines, Marina Sittrop, Julie Rodriguez and Mary Johnson. Carey Wallingford was the athletic director. 160Want local news?Sign up for the Localist and stay informed Something went wrong. Please try again.subscribeCongratulations! You’re all set! The Glendora Peewee and Junior Peewee cheer teams both won first place at the 2007 Jamz Youth National Championships in Las Vegas. Peewee team members include Aliza Connard, Alexis Friscia, Jordan Toothman, Courtney Hudson, Paige Ferrari, Lauren Oley, Savanna Scharbrough, Kayla Gray, Sarah Seber, Donnalee Osko, Katelynn Lovasz, Bethann Cincotta, Natasha Estrada, Cydney Olson, Hannah Wendling, Amanda Yancosky, Catherine Valdez, Erin Cloherty, Christine O’Connell, Haley Hogberg, Alyssa Rodarte, Isabel Navarro, Madison Wells, Amanda Downey, Jessica Young, Danielle De Guzman, Meednelle Sansom, Nicole Bearse, Alexa Lopez, Samantha Lovasz, Alyssa Martel, Ariana Huerta and Kelly Quintero. Kimm Toothman headed a coaching staff that also featured Suzanne Martel, Laura Cloherty, Andrea Friscia, Linda De Guzman, Terri Lopez, Gina Hudson, Janelle Gray and Cindy Bearse. Rita Wendling served as the athletic director with Jessica Lovasz as the assistant AD. last_img read more

For the record

first_imgA story Saturday about the LAPD’s vehicle impound policy contained incorrect information. The city generates $14 million from all vehicles towed in the city, not just those impounded from unlicensed drivers. 160Want local news?Sign up for the Localist and stay informed Something went wrong. Please try again.subscribeCongratulations! You’re all set!last_img

Watch: This incredible volley is the best goal scored this week you haven’t seen

first_img Pogba-Bale swap deal would be ‘mistake’ as Man United ace linked with Real Madrid Thousands of pro-Catalan protesters make their voice heard before El Clasico Latest La Liga news All of Lionel Messi’s incredible records against Real Madrid ahead of El Clasico Top scorer in 2019: Messi, Mbappe and Sterling trailing Europe’s top marksman WARNING Barcelona star latest victim of burglary as thieves target house before El Clasico Huesca have begun their first ever season in La Liga in brilliant style.The top flight new boys won their opening match in Spain’s highest division, beating Eibar 2-1 last week, and they were forced to visit San Mames, Athletic Club’s famous home, on Sunday. ROWDY on target targeted g.o.a.t El Clasico Avila’s strike secured Huesca a valuable point as they moved into sixth after two matches, and there was something extra special about the 87th minute finish.The pure quality of the goal was astounding, but it was largely missed as Huesca’s trip to Bilbao was being played while all eyes were glued to Tottenham’s 3-0 defeat of Manchester United which has left Jose Mourinho on the brink.Avila’s strike is already being considered a goal of the season candidate, and you can feast your eyes on the majestic finish, as well as the other highlights, below… FINAL | ¡VICTORIA HISTÓRICA! 🔥#EibarHuesca #VamosHuesca pic.twitter.com/U1lTk5YHJs— SD Huesca (@SDHuesca) August 19, 2018Athletic are notoriously hard to defeat in front of their own fans, and it looked like it would be a routine win for the Bilbao side after Markel Susaeta and Yuri Berchiche put them two goals to the good with just over 25 minutes left.However, Jorge Miramon kickstarted a fight-back on 71 minutes, and Ezequiel Avila scored the equalising goal as the match entered it’s final stages. How to watch Barcelona vs Real Madrid: Stream, channel, kick-off time, team news G-O-L-A-Z-O 💙❤️Highlights as @chimy337’s rocket earned @SDHuesca a point at San Mames! 🚀#AthleticHuesca pic.twitter.com/peaGvXgStz— LaLiga (@LaLigaEN) August 28, 2018last_img read more

DONEGAL NEWS IN BRIEF…DONEGAL NEWS IN BRIEF

first_imgTRAGIC DEATH: The woman who died suddenly at a restaurant in Annagry earlier this week was Maureen McCarthy, 43, who had been due to celebrate her birthday with her family.FRIENDS: Donegal manager Jim McGuinness says he’s friends with county chairman PJ McGowan and says there is no rift between the pair. Mr McGuinness did say he had problems with other board members.INJURED: County star Dermot Molloy could be out for six weeks after hurting his knee playing in the U-21 championship game for Naomh Conaill against St Eunan’s. CARRIG-PARK: Mayor Noel McBride has intervened in a row after residents in his native Carrigart were fined – for parking on their own land! The local people own the land where they park their cars on main street, but gardai issued parking tickets because they believe the land is part of the pavement.CRIMEWAVE: Fifteen properties in Letterkenny have been robbed by thieves, including a wake house in recent weeks. Community garda Sgt Paul Wallace has warned residents to be cautious.DISASTER: EirGrid have started ruining the Donegal countryside by starting work on the Binbane powerline.HOSPITAL: Letterkenny General Hospital has confirmed it has overspent so far this year, as we reported two months ago. MARKET CLOSURE: Donegal Town Market is facing closure unless an agreement is reached soon.DONEGAL NEWS IN BRIEF…DONEGAL NEWS IN BRIEF was last modified: July 21st, 2011 by gregShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window) Tags:Donegal news in brieflast_img read more

GOtv on board as 2018 National Volleyball League playoffs are launched

first_img Tags: Aziz DamaniBenjamin MusokeGOtvNational Volleyballtop The playoffs will start on 6th November (photo by Shaban Lubega)NAKASERO – he 2018 Aziz Damani National Volleyball League playoffs have officially been launched on Tuesday, 30-10-2018 at D’mellos Resturant in Nakasero.Like it was the case last year, the Uganda Volleyball Federation (UVF) has partnered with Aziz Damani in order to make the title chasing end of the season more exciting.Speaking on behalf on Mr. Aziz Damani at the launch, Aziz Damani CEO Benjamin Musoke emphasized that the reason as to why they are renewing their partnership with UVF is because of the excellent organisation exhibited by the Federation.“As you know, our interest in sports continues to expand, said Musoke.“We are already in Cricket, Football, Badminton, and now Volleyball but we are here today to renew our partnership with Volleyball following the outstanding performance of the athletes and the organisation of UVF in the 2017 playoffs series.“We are part of this because our goal is to see the sport gain the glory it deserves.“I am therefore proud to see this partnership grow and am confident we can work together for the playoffs.This year’s playoffs have also brought on board PayTv Giants GOtv who will broadcast the games live on one of their channels and also provide Decoders and other prizes to the outstanding performers.GOtv marketing representative Florence Nakirya expressed her delight to be part of this year’s playoffs and promised that they will continue supporting the sport.“We are happy and excited that we will be part of this year’s National Volleyball playoffs, said Nakirya“GOtv and DStv have always supported sport in the country and i can assure everyone that we will continue doing like wise.“We come to Volleyball to try and ensure that the sport grows further.“We are for now offering a decoder to each of the MVPs in Serie A (Women and Men).“Like i said, this is for the start and we shall see how to nature this relationship.This year’s playoffs are sponsored by Aziz Damani and GOtv (photo by Shaban Lubega)Also speaking at the Launch, UVF president Hadijah Namanda thanked the Aziz Damani foundation for their continued support towards Volleyball.“Aziz Damani and UVF’s partnership has grown and contributed tremendously to the thrill and excitement of Volleyball as we know it, said Namanda.“We are profoundly grateful to have Damani’s support in 2018 and that shows the confidence and trust we have built from this partnership.The playoffs serve-off on Tuesday November 2018.This year’s games will be played at two major venues including MTN Arena in Lugogo and Sport-S Grounds in Nsambya.Nemo Stars are the defending champions in the Men’s Series A after defeating Sport-S 3-0 in last year’s final.For the Women Nkumba defeated Vision Volleyball Club 3-1 to win last years’s Serie A Women’s championship.The teams that have made it to the playoffs this year:Serie A Men: UCU, Sport-S, Nemo Stars, Ndejje.Serie A Women: Nkumba A, Sport S, Ndejje, UCUSerie B Men: Lira VC, Tigers, KU VC, JVCSeries C Men: ARK VC, OBB, Thunders, KAVC BComments last_img read more

Infrastructure: ‘we have the resources’

first_img22 February 2012 The state will have about R4.5-trillion in resources to draw on, using a range of financing methods over the next three years, to fund the country’s key infrastructure projects, says South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Gordhan revealed the figure in a media briefing in Cape Town shortly before delivering his Budget speech in Parliament on Wednesday. The Budget Review lists 43 major infrastructure projects, each of which will take between seven and eight-and-a-half years to complete, together requiring R3.2-trillion in spending over the next few years. In his Budget speech, Gordhan said the government had already approved and budgeted infrastructure plans over the next three years to the value of R845-billion – R300-billion of which is in the energy sector and R262-billion in the transport and logistics sector. He said the infrastructure mega-projects announced by President Jacob Zuma in his State of the Nation address earlier this month would be financed using the fiscus, public entities’ balance sheets, taxes, private-sector investors, and by raising funding from multilateral finance institutions and foreign investors.Improving infrastructure delivery The government would also improve the delivery of infrastructure through a range of measures, Gordhan said, adding that the government would crack down on departments and municipalities with a poor record for spending funds made available to them to improve infrastructure. The fiscus would meet the cost of public-service facilities such as schools, courtrooms, hospitals and rural roads, he said. Public entities such as Eskom and Transnet would finance their respective investments from their own surpluses and by borrowing from the capital market – by issuing low-term bonds. “This means they have to generate sufficient revenue from tariffs and charges to repay debt over time, and cover operating and maintenance costs,” Gordhan said. He said that in some cases a mix of tax finance and cost recovery would be appropriate, but he added that the government contributed to the costs of commuter transport and electricity and water services to poor communities through allocations in the Budget.Local, foreign investors also key Local and foreign investors would also be key, and Gordhan noted that private-sector investment already played a substantial role in several sectors, such as the airline industry and telecommunications sector. The first round of over 1 200MW of renewable energy projects was also recently tendered to independent power producers. Gordhan pointed out that the use of construction and operating concessions – for example the management of industrial development zones, freight logistics and port operations – was another way to rope in private investors. The Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) would play a key role in raising finance in partnership with multilateral finance institutions, foreign investors and other investment funds, he said.‘Deep and liquid capital markets’ Added to this, he said South Africa had deep and liquid capital markets through which long-term capital could be raised at competitive rates by the government, state enterprises and the private sector. He said the country’s development finance institutions were capable of raising capital and co-financing investments involving the private sector, state entities and municipalities “These are considerable strengths – they mean that we do not have to rely on expensive external finance or complex structured arrangements,” he said.R3.2-trillion ‘mega-projects’ The bulk of the R3.2-trillion in mega-projects would be spent on electricity (R1.945-trillion), while R583-billion would be spent on transport, R213-billion on liquid fuels, R185-billion on new schools and R110-billion on new clinics and hospitals. The remainder – R169-billion – would be spent on housing, telecommunications and water. Of the total amount, R1.082-trillion would be spent on the concept stage, R921-billion on pre-feasability and feasibility studies, R378-billion on construction and R328-billion to fund on-going programmes. The remainder – R499-billion – would be spent on tendering, financing and detailed design. The mega-projects include a Durban-Free State-Gauteng logistics corridor, a southeastern development node and projects in the North West, Limpopo and on the West Coast. Source: BuaNewslast_img read more

Trump’s trade strategy could lead to recession

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest If the Trump Administration follows through on international trade plans, the United States could see increased unemployment and a recession, according to an agricultural economist at The Ohio State University.Ian Sheldon, the Andersons Chair in Agricultural Marketing, Trade and Policy in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE), said if Trump were to implement a 45% tariff against China and a 35% tariff against Mexico, “He’s going to put the economy into a recession, if the Chinese and Mexicans retaliate, as I expect them to do.”Citing the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Sheldon anticipates that within three years of the launch of a trade war, U.S. inflation would increase due to rising import prices and to a Federal Reserve response of raising interest rates on top of the expected increases this year. As a result of the increased cost of borrowing, investment would decline, pushing the economy into recession within three years, leading to the loss of 4.8 million to 5 million jobs.“A trade war would be self-defeating, in my opinion and in the opinion of most economists,” Sheldon said.Low-income Americans, who already spend a higher percentage of their income on necessities like food, would be hardest hit.“It will lower the purchasing power of the poorest in society,” Sheldon said.With increased interest rates and a stronger dollar, the trade deficit would only worsen, leading to a repeating cycle. Global supply chainsSheldon said people have misconceptions that the move of manufacturing jobs to Mexico, China and other countries caused the loss of 5.8 million jobs in the late 1990s. But most of those losses were due to technological advances that replaced people. He estimates that 13% 17% of those job losses could be attributed to international trade, but that 60% to 80% were due to technology that brought increased productivity.A trade war would hurt the U.S. economy in other ways, Sheldon said, and would be unlikely to bring many jobs back. About 80% of world trade now occurs through global supply chains, where higher skill work is completed in one country, and lower skill work is done elsewhere.Cars assembled in Mexico, for example, start out in the U.S., with about 40% of their value first completed here. Taxing the cars coming back to the U.S. would hurt our own export market, Sheldon said. If the U.S. targets China, assembly work could easily be moved to Vietnam and nothing would be gained. Impact on agriculture and food pricesChina is expected to import nearly 3.2 billion bushels of soybeans during this marketing year (2016-2017), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, accounting for about two-thirds of the world’s imports. Some 59% of U.S. shipments go to China, so American soybean growers would be hit hard in a trade war.Mexico represents a large market for corn as well. Representing the third largest agricultural export market for the U.S., Mexico imports $2.3 billion worth of our corn.The U.S. imports about $4.8 billion worth of vegetables and $4.3 billion worth of fresh fruits from Mexico. Losing those imports would hurt U.S. consumers, especially lower-income consumers, as fruit and vegetable prices would rise with a trade war, Sheldon said. Losses from other trade agreementsFailing to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would likely cost the United States in terms of potential growth. The Peterson Institute projected a $130 billion increase in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030 from that agreement. GDP is one of the primary indicators to gauge the health of a country’s economy.The United States would also miss the chance to open up the Japanese agricultural market, which USDA projected would account for 68% of the increase in agricultural imports among TPP countries. Overall, the agreement was expected to increase U.S. agricultural exports to the TPP by $2.8 billion.“The TPP was the template of how modern free trade agreements should be written. We’re throwing away the opportunity to write the rules,” he said.The TPP would also have reduced more than 18,000 tariffs, including many on agricultural products, Sheldon said.“A trade war is unambiguously a bad idea,” Sheldon said. “Hopefully we will see some legal and political checks on trade plans.”last_img read more